The simple truth China dominated financial markets on
Monday, with the biggest fall in Shanghai shares in eight years driving stock
markets and prices of major commodities lower across the board.
The dollar was weak ahead of the week's main set piece -
Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy decision and statement - with a
better-than-expected survey of German business sentiment prodding the euro
above $1.11 for the first time in two weeks.
But it was the stunning 8.5 percent fall in Shanghai that
drove most of the moves early in the European day: Share indices in Frankfurt,
London and Paris all slumped by more than 1 percent.
Traders and investors said that was all rooted in broader
concerns over global growth midway through the corporate results reason and
following a poor economic reading out of China late last week.
Wall Street was also expected to open more than half a
percent lower.
"This really has its roots in nervousness that began in
the U.S. at the end of last week," said Andy Sullivan, a portfolio manager
with Swiss investment firm GL Financial Group.
"Shanghai is an artificial market at the moment reliant
on government support, and they have thrown the kitchen sink at it in recent
weeks. The selling just ratcheted up steadily this morning."
The CSI300 index of the largest listed companies in Shanghai
and China's other major market, Shenzhen, ended 8.5 percent lower. Japan's
Nikkei slipped more than 1 percent, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific
shares outside Japan fell 1.6 percent.
Both copper, for which Chinese demand is an important
driver, and the broader Thomson Reuters CRB commodities index hit their lowest
point in six years. Copper futures fell another 1 percent on Monday.
"The drop in Chinese equities and the negative growth
backdrop in China are clearly going to leave you very concerned about Chinese
demand in the months ahead," said Nic Brown, head of commodities research
at Natixis.
FED UP?
Despite the still patchy economic news, many analysts still
expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates in September. Fed chief
Janet Yellen drove the dollar higher earlier this month by saying a move this
year was on the cards, but she has gone no further than that.
"We expect Fed voters to pull the trigger in September,
but for the path to interest rate normalization to be a long one given the
global risk profile," analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group
said in a note to clients.
Expectations of a hike have slowly pushed up U.S. Treasury
yields and widened the dollar's premium over the euro. But the euro has also
tended to rise when investors get more concerned about global growth and rein
in riskier bets, as they were doing on Monday.
The common currency gave back some of its early gains from a
bullish Ifo survey of German business sentiment to stand up 0.8 percent on the
day at $1.1076.
Brent crude fell 84 cents to $53.78 a barrel, touching its
lowest in almost four months, adding to falls which are expected to put more
downward pressure on global inflation.
"In the next couple of months, even if the global
oversupply and seasonal weakness are becoming priced in, it is difficult to see
where any price uplift will come from," said Societe Generale oil analyst
Michael Wittner.
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